FILE 01 The Leaderboard Scorecard · Monthly audit
This month, only 6 of the top 25 wallets have an edge you could copy.
Every month we take Polymarket’s 25 highest-earning wallets by 30-day profit and run each one through the same forensic decode we sell — reconstructing how the money was actually made and rating whether the edge survives an honest copy. Being on the leaderboard is not the same as being copyable.
6 / 25
wallets carry a verifiable, copyable edge. The other 19 are variance, structure, or unverifiable.
6Real edge — copyable
2One-shot — variance
1Artifact — redemption arb
1Market-making
15Insufficient evidence
The full board, decoded.
One stamp per wallet, from the same six-verdict taxonomy every Decode Report uses. This is the July 2026 cycle — we re-run the top 25 monthly. See the method →
Every name links to its public decode — share the verdict, not a screenshot of a spreadsheet.
Real edgeArtifactMarket-makingOne-shotReward-farmingInsufficient evidence
| # | Wallet | 30-day profit | Verdict | Copy? | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | DEEDDIT0x09b4…7320 | $8.1M | Real edge | Copyable | 102% reconstruction on a fill log truncated in its largest market (disclosed in the workpaper); diversified sports directional. |
| 02 | swisstony0x204f…5e14 | $6.8M | Insufficient evidence | — | Our fetch for this wallet saw 15,410 of at least 539,113 fills in the window — 2.9% of its book — so nothing below is evidence about the wallet, including the 21.9%. Re-measured 2026-07-16; unreconciled (UNRECONCILED.md U1). We do not certify it either way. |
| 03 | maz260x6754…e3bc | $3.2M | Insufficient evidence | — | Our own fill log for this book is truncated, so rebuilding it lands at −220% of displayed — a figure about our fetch as much as about the wallet. MM-leaning on structure; the gap is unreconciled and we attribute it to neither. |
| 04 | CandleHammerDrums0x7c1e…bab3 | $2.6M | Insufficient evidence | — | Re-stamped 2026-07-16 (was Real edge): the wallet's own fills rebuild 82.47% of displayed profit — 17.53 points from par, outside the ±15% band the scorecard publishes as the condition for the stamp. An open-book mark worth 5% of the total narrows the gap to 86.92%, but that mark is Polymarket's valuation, not our reconstruction. We do not certify an edge on the number under test. |
| 05 | Sparkling88990x2e25…d49e | $2.4M | Insufficient evidence | — | Directional-looking on structure, but our own fill log here is truncated — the −70% rebuild is not evidence about this wallet either way. The gap is unreconciled. |
| 06 | Jsram0x8372…5223 | $2.4M | Insufficient evidence | — | Broad sports activity; PnL does not reconcile. |
| 07 | 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c30x2c33…0563 | $2.4M | Market-making | — | 333k fills across 1,607 markets, 43% two-sided — quoting, not a bet. |
| 08 | ramadamaramadam0x5b4e…0232 | $2.2M | Insufficient evidence | — | 63% reconstruction on a fill log our own engine flags truncated — the shortfall may be ours, and no dominant tell separates it. The gap is unreconciled. |
| 09 | asparagus20120x476e…396d | $2.1M | Insufficient evidence | — | Re-stamped 2026-07-16 (was Real edge): our own fills reconstruct 2% of displayed profit, so the 94.81% agreement is mostly Polymarket's own mark on positions the wallet still holds (98% of the total), not our rebuild of its trades. We do not certify an edge on the number under test. |
| 10 | muchobliged0x095f…90b2 | $2.0M | Real edge | Copyable | 88% reconstruction; concentration flag, still directional. |
| 11 | weatherman120xd1c5…cbd0 | $1.8M | Real edge | Copyable | 100% reconstruction, textbook directional across 41 markets. |
| 12 | hot2trot0xb61b…8a06 | $1.8M | Real edge | Copyable | 111% reconstruction, low two-sided share, no crutch. |
| 13 | palegrit0xf5fa…62df | $1.7M | Real edge | Copyable | 100% reconstruction, disciplined favorite-buyer. |
| 14 | Allezpapa0xe549…2d54 | $1.7M | Insufficient evidence | — | Over-reconstructs to 145% on a fill log our own engine flags truncated — an overshoot a partial log can produce on its own. The gap is unreconciled. |
| 15 | myzbsq0x9468…5d4b | $1.5M | One-shot | — | 64% of volume in one market — a single longshot did the work. |
| 16 | ndb10xfea3…d227 | $1.2M | Artifact | — | 35% of buys placed at ≥$0.99 — redemption arbitrage, not edge. |
| 17 | 0x076daa870x076d…8d4c | $1.1M | Insufficient evidence | — | 2,960 markets, spray pattern; PnL won't reconcile. |
| 18 | cnyek0x6501…1220 | $1.1M | Insufficient evidence | — | Reconstruction overshoots to 164% — cannot verify. |
| 19 | alwayslatetotheparty0xb687…aee5 | $1.1M | One-shot | — | 69% of buys are ≤$0.02 longshots — variance, not a process. |
| 20 | highnetworth0xbb5f…2e21 | $1.1M | Real edge | Copyable | 95% reconstruction, clean directional book. |
| 21 | 0xC41D736bDed9ED1acCD60xc41d…74fd | $1.0M | Insufficient evidence | — | Reconstruction fails; directional shape, unverified. |
| 22 | pada0x714a…ab2f | $1.0M | Insufficient evidence | — | Some late-price buys but no dominant tell; won't reconcile. |
| 23 | FootballFan980xc31d…4ebe | $973K | Insufficient evidence | — | Reconstruction fails; no decisive structural signal. |
| 24 | filthybetz0xc6a6…9458 | $961K | Insufficient evidence | — | Re-stamped 2026-07-16 (was Real edge): reconstructs to 84.96% of displayed profit — 15.04 points from par, outside the ±15% band the scorecard publishes as the condition for the stamp. The figure is built from the wallet’s own fills; it simply does not land inside our promise. |
| 25 | wco260x3f6e…18d9 | $676K | Insufficient evidence | — | Re-stamped 2026-07-16 (was Real edge): our own fills reconstruct -104% of displayed profit, so the 84.79% agreement is mostly Polymarket's own mark on positions the wallet still holds (223% of the total), not our rebuild of its trades. The rebuilt total is itself 84.79% — 15.21 points from par, outside the same band. We do not certify an edge on the number under test. |
Why so many “Insufficient evidence.” We only stamp “Real edge” when a wallet’s
profit reconstructs from its own fills — and only when the rebuilt figure lands within about ±15% of the
displayed profit. A book that over-reconstructs (145%, 164%) fails that test just as one that under-reconstructs
does. On the biggest, most-active books our reconstruction can’t yet close the ledger either way — so rather
than issue a confident-but-wrong verdict, we say so. That’s the whole product: we would rather refuse than guess.
Coverage rises as the engine improves; a paid Decode goes deeper than this free monthly pass.
Check our work. The reconstruction workpaper publishes every wallet’s error for this cycle — the 8 we scored, the 15 we refused with their verbatim rationales, the 2 we classified without a usable PnL, and the pooled figure our critics would compute. Median gap on the 10 wallets we claim — a set chosen by market and fill count, before any verdict, and not the same set as the 8 we scored above: 5.1 points; our reconstructions sum to 98.7% of the displayed dollars.
What we haven’t proved. On 2026-07-16 we found that our fetch for swisstony (rank 02) had captured 2.9% of that wallet’s book in the 30-day window this page reports on — and 0.5% of its lifetime book — while every completeness signal we own read green. We have not re-fetched the other 24 wallets to prove theirs are complete, so the numbers on this page rest on fetches whose completeness is unproven. That gap is logged, not explained away, in the standing unreconciled-items table — U1 for the wallet, U2 for the exposure to the rest.
Check our work. The reconstruction workpaper publishes every wallet’s error for this cycle — the 8 we scored, the 15 we refused with their verbatim rationales, the 2 we classified without a usable PnL, and the pooled figure our critics would compute. Median gap on the 10 wallets we claim — a set chosen by market and fill count, before any verdict, and not the same set as the 8 we scored above: 5.1 points; our reconstructions sum to 98.7% of the displayed dollars.
What we haven’t proved. On 2026-07-16 we found that our fetch for swisstony (rank 02) had captured 2.9% of that wallet’s book in the 30-day window this page reports on — and 0.5% of its lifetime book — while every completeness signal we own read green. We have not re-fetched the other 24 wallets to prove theirs are complete, so the numbers on this page rest on fetches whose completeness is unproven. That gap is logged, not explained away, in the standing unreconciled-items table — U1 for the wallet, U2 for the exposure to the rest.
Nominations
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