MSR Decode
MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №21 of 25

0xc41d…74fd

0xc41d736bded9ed1accd6a44235039266219774fd

$1.0M · 30-day displayed profit

Insufficient evidence

The book won’t reconcile — we can’t verify how this money was made, so we won’t guess. That’s the answer, and it’s often the one that saves you.

Not copyable

Polymarket displayed
$1.02M
MSR reconstructed
$-1.15M
-112.3% of displayed

Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle — including the ones we got wrong — is published in the reconstruction workpaper.

Directional
98.6%
Post-resolution
0%
Bilateral (two-sided)
1.4%

Reconstruction fails; directional shape, unverified.

The book won’t reconcile from public data, so we don’t guess. That refusal is the product. Our verbatim rationale for this wallet is on file in the reconstruction workpaper, next to the errors on the wallets we did score.

22400 fills · 221 markets · avg buy $0.448 · top market: Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?

Get the full Decode Report on 0xc41d…74fd — the fill-by-fill ledger, the mechanism decomposition, and the written argument for the verdict.

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