CandleHammerDrums
$2.6M · 30-day displayed profit
This wallet’s own fills don’t rebuild its displayed profit closely enough. An open-book mark narrows the gap, but that mark is Polymarket’s valuation and our promise is about our reconstruction — so we don’t certify an edge on it.
Not copyable
Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle — including the ones we got wrong — is published in the reconstruction workpaper.
Re-stamped 2026-07-16 (was Real edge): the wallet's own fills rebuild 82.47% of displayed profit — 17.53 points from par, outside the ±15% band the scorecard publishes as the condition for the stamp. An open-book mark worth 5% of the total narrows the gap to 86.92%, but that mark is Polymarket's valuation, not our reconstruction. We do not certify an edge on the number under test.
This wallet was stamped Real edge — copyable when the scorecard first published, because the total we compared against Polymarket landed inside our ±15% band. But that total is our fills plus Polymarket’s mark on an open book, and the fills alone do not land inside it. We publish the band as a promise about reconstructing a wallet’s trades, so the honest test is the one our own rebuild has to pass. We corrected the verdict on 2026-07-16 rather than read our own sentence in the way that kept the stamp. The dated correction, the arithmetic, and the accuracy numbers this does not change are in the reconstruction workpaper.
14695 fills · 207 markets · avg buy $0.494 · top market: Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?
Get the full Decode Report on CandleHammerDrums — the fill-by-fill ledger, the mechanism decomposition, and the written argument for the verdict.