MSR Decode
MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №2 of 25

swisstony

0x204f72f35326db932158cba6adff0b9a1da95e14

$6.8M · 30-day displayed profit

Insufficient evidence

We didn’t see enough of this wallet to say anything about it. The figures below are computed from a small fraction of its book — that’s a gap in our fetch, not a finding about the trader, and we won’t dress it up as one.

Not copyable

Polymarket displayed
$6.83M
MSR reconstructed
$1.49M
21.9% of displayed

Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle — including the ones we got wrong — is published in the reconstruction workpaper.

Directional
53.5%
Post-resolution
3.6%
Bilateral (two-sided)
42.9%

Our fetch for this wallet saw 15,410 of at least 539,113 fills in the window — 2.9% of its book — so nothing below is evidence about the wallet, including the 21.9%. Re-measured 2026-07-16; unreconciled (UNRECONCILED.md U1). We do not certify it either way.

We are not refusing this wallet because its book is unreadable. We are refusing it because our fetch of it was incomplete, and we did not notice until after we had published figures computed from it. The numbers on this page are what that partial fetch produced; they are not evidence about the trader, and the correction is ours to carry, not his. It is logged as U1 in the standing unreconciled-items table, which also records what it means for the wallets we have not re-fetched.

15410 fills · 434 markets · avg buy $0.804 · top market: Will France win on 2026-07-14?

Get the full Decode Report on swisstony — the fill-by-fill ledger, the mechanism decomposition, and the written argument for the verdict.

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