MSR Decode
MSR DECODE · July 2026 cycle · №9 of 25

asparagus2012

0x476e1322d1a412fa0325527b8c3bc5e707b1396d

$2.1M · 30-day displayed profit

Insufficient evidence

The number we’re testing is largely Polymarket’s own valuation of positions this wallet still holds — not our rebuild of its trades. Agreement with it wouldn’t be evidence, so we don’t certify an edge on it.

Not copyable

Polymarket displayed
$2.15M
MSR reconstructed
$2.04M
94.8% of displayed

Reconstruction error for all 25 wallets this cycle — including the ones we got wrong — is published in the reconstruction workpaper.

Directional
100%
Post-resolution
0%
Bilateral (two-sided)
0%

Re-stamped 2026-07-16 (was Real edge): our own fills reconstruct 2% of displayed profit, so the 94.81% agreement is mostly Polymarket's own mark on positions the wallet still holds (98% of the total), not our rebuild of its trades. We do not certify an edge on the number under test.

This wallet was stamped Real edge — copyable when the scorecard first published. Most of the figure we were certifying is Polymarket’s own mark on positions the wallet still holds, so agreeing with it is Polymarket agreeing with Polymarket rather than a test our fills passed. We corrected the verdict on 2026-07-16 rather than leave it standing. The dated correction, the arithmetic, and the accuracy numbers this does not change are in the reconstruction workpaper.

3408 fills · 16 markets · avg buy $0.351 · top market: France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5

Get the full Decode Report on asparagus2012 — the fill-by-fill ledger, the mechanism decomposition, and the written argument for the verdict.

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