FILE 00 Wallet intelligence · Forensic division
Before you copy a prediction-market wallet, find out how it actually made money. We reconstruct the full trading history, separate directional skill from arbitrage, market-making, and reward farming — and rate whether the edge could be replicated.
Full-history fetch Per-fill reconstruction 99.6% match to displayed PnL
Profit source
44%
of copied “leader” wallets actually make money for their followers.
01 The problem
97% of “leader” wallets are green on their own PnL — but only ~44% produce positive PnL for the people who follow them. That was measured in crypto, not prediction markets; nobody has published the equivalent for Polymarket, which is a good part of why this exists.
Being profitable ≠ being copyable. That gap is what we measure.
Source: Yieldfund, “Is Copy Trading Profitable? A 90-Day Multi-Exchange Study” (Vlad Hatze, 24 Nov 2025): 1,486 lead traders and 100,236 copier outcomes across Binance, Bybit and MEXC, collected over 90 days to 24 Oct 2025. Both figures are over all leaders in that sample. Self-reported vendor research; the leader-level data is not published, so we cannot recompute it. It measures crypto copy-trading, not prediction markets — we cite it because it is the closest measurement that exists, not because it is ours.
This vocabulary is the product. ~58 tools rank wallets by PnL. A score isn’t an explanation — the file names the mechanism and shows the evidence.
Directional positions taken before the market moved, sized with intent, profitable after honest cost-basis reconstruction. The rare wallet worth studying.
Forensic tellEntries lead price; PnL survives per-fill reconstruction; no structural crutch.
Redemption arbitrage, cluster/wash behavior. The PnL is real — the edge is structural, and a retail copier following the same entries will lose money.
Forensic tellBuys near $0.99 pre-resolution; paired wallets; profit vanishes at copier timing.
PnL manufactured from liquidity rewards, rebates, and points — volume played for the subsidy, not the outcome. Copy the trades without the rewards and the returns evaporate.
Forensic tellTwo-sided volume at flat prices; PnL tracks incentive epochs, not events.
Two-sided quoting and inventory management. Displayed PnL reflects thousands of small spreads — a flow business, not a forecast you can follow.
Forensic tellBalanced buys and sells at adjacent prices; inventory mean-reverts; no directional lean survives netting.
Most of the profit traces to a single concentrated win. It proves variance, not an edge — there is no process to copy.
Forensic telln = 1: profit concentrated in one market and outcome; little history before or after.
Fills that won’t reconcile against the displayed profit — often because the history we can fetch is incomplete. Rather than issue a confident-but-wrong stamp, the file states exactly what’s missing.
Forensic tellFills don’t reconcile with the displayed figure — often where the fetch gate caps out. Refused rather than guessed.
For traders deciding whether to follow a wallet — and for the platforms whose leaderboards those wallets sit on.
For traders & copiers
$99–$299 · one-off · 1–3 days
A forensic autopsy of a single wallet: displayed PnL vs reconstructed real PnL, edge decomposition, strategy class, and a plain-English replicability verdict.
For tool & copy-platform operators
$500–$2,000 / mo · B2B
Our classification as a data feed. Embed a “Replicability” column beside your PnL leaderboard — and turn a rankings page into a product your users can trust.
For self-serve screeners
$39 / mo
Every top wallet auto-classified. Real edge vs artifact flagged at a glance, with alerts when a real-edge wallet opens a new position.
For operators — the classification-feed pilot
Manual pilots reveal which fields matter, what refresh you need, and what evidence your users must see — then we productize. CSV, JSON, secure shared file, or a simple endpoint. Weekly analyst review call. One custom reclassification per week.
A verdict is only as good as the evidence chain behind it. Ours starts with the complete record and ends in a named strategy class — no sampling, no vibes.
We pull the wallet’s fill log from the public feed — a feed that caps how much it will hand back, so completeness has to be forced window by window rather than assumed. Partial data produces confident, wrong verdicts. We know that first-hand: on 2026-07-16 we found one wallet whose fetch had captured 2.9% of its 30-day book (0.5% of its lifetime book) while every completeness check we own read green, and we had already published figures from it. Where a fetch is short but the profit still rebuilds from the fills we do have, we stamp it and print the truncation next to the stamp; where it can’t, we refuse. What we have not done is prove the rest of this cycle’s fetches are complete — that gap is logged as U2 in the unreconciled-items table, not papered over here.
We rebuild the wallet’s real PnL fill by fill and set it against the number the leaderboard displays. The gap between displayed and real is where artifacts hide.
Behavior is decoded into a labeled taxonomy — redemption arbitrage, reward-farming, cluster/wash, directional-real, market-making — and the verdict follows from the class, stated in plain English.
Two published decodes — one leaderboard darling taken apart, and a real $99 report exactly as a client received it.
Case file 01Artifact — not replicable
How a top wallet’s celebrated “edge” decomposed, fill by fill, into redemption arbitrage — profit a copier could never have captured.
Read the case →Case file 02One-shot — not an edge
A real $99 report. A $249K → $1.22M World Cup bet that looks like genius on the leaderboard — and decodes as a one-shot lottery ticket, not a repeatable edge.
Read the report →Give us the wallet. We’ll tell you — with evidence — whether the genius is real before you put money behind it.
Standard single wallet, $99 flat. We start today — and if we can’t obtain enough fill history to reconcile the book against the displayed profit, you get a full refund.
Secure checkout — USDC on Solana, on-chain. Analysis of public on-chain data only.
That the mechanism behind the profits — not the profits themselves — could realistically be executed by a follower without the original wallet’s structural advantages: timing, rebates, paired flow, or settlement position.
We fetch the wallet's fill history from the public feed, rebuild cost basis per fill, decompose PnL by market and mechanism, and classify the strategy. Where that fetch comes back short, we say so on the wallet's own row rather than treat what we got as the whole book. The rating states the class, the confidence, and the evidence behind both.
Public on-chain and exchange-published trade data only. No private access, no self-reported numbers.
Leaderboards net things a copier can’t ignore: rewards, rebates, paired entries, and settlement flows. The gap between the displayed figure and the rebuilt one is usually where the artifact hides.
The file says so — on the wallet’s own row, not in a footnote. If we can’t obtain enough history to reconcile the book against the displayed profit, we refuse to classify — and for paid reports, you don’t pay. Where a fetch is truncated but the profit still reconstructs from the fills we do have, we stamp it and print the truncation beside the stamp. From the next cycle those are excluded from our accuracy set outright.
No. We publish research on the historical behavior of wallets. Ratings describe the replicability of past mechanisms; they are not individualized trading recommendations.
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Send exactly the amount above in USDC (SPL) on Solana. We watch the address and email you the moment it lands to start your decode. Wrong network or amount can delay it — questions? Use Request a quote.
ceo@mainstreetres.com